After the release of the January Visa Bulletin, the chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of States (DOS), Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, provided his predictions on future movement in the employment-based green card categories. His predictions, made to the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA), are summarized below:
EB-1 China and India
In the January 2017 Bulletin, final action dates for all chargeability areas, including China and India, will remain current, however, based on current demand, Charlie predicts that a final action cutoff date will need to be imposed for EB-1 China and EB-1 India later this fiscal year.
EB-2
The EB-2 final action dates for all chargeability areas except those listed, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and the Philippines remain current in the January Bulletin. The final action cutoff dates for EB-2 China and India have progressed to Oct. 15, 2012 and April 15, 2008, respectively.
Charlie expects to impose a final action cutoff date for EB-2 Worldwide at some point due to the sizable demand across all chargeability areas. EB-2 China has already exceeded its quarterly limit, so any major forward movement for this category is unlikely. Charlie remains hopeful that EB-2 India will recover to the Nov. 22, 2008, final action date from May 2015, but EB-3 upgrades may set-back such recovery.
EB-3
Demand in the Worldwide EB-3 category has dropped, enabling Charlie to advance the category in January across all chargeability areas. Charlie predicts that when EB-2 Worldwide becomes subject to a final action cutoff date, we may see “an EB-3 downgrade phenomenon” which only numbers for China have seen until this point.
EB-5 China
Charlie expects continued advancement for the EB-5 category for China, but the progress will be slow, up to only a few weeks at a time. The demand for EB-5 Worldwide is very high. In the past, China captured approximately 80 percent of the available numbers for this category, whereas last year, China’s share of EB-5 Worldwide decreased to 75 percent.